And I’m still not voting! I am, however, hoping for a Harper minority government. Socially speaking, I’m not a fan of Harper, but on the economy, he’s most certainly the best choice. (This reminds me a of post by David Boaz, A Libertarian Dilemma. Though I solved the issue by not voting.) I anticipate strong reaction from my Canadian history seminar when they hear I did not partake in the sacred democratic process.
Here is Bourque’s round up of polls:
cp: Con 34% Libs 25% Ndp 19% Bloc 11% Grn 9%
cpac: Con 34% Libs 27% Ndp 21% Bloc 10% Grn 8%
Ctv/g&m: Con 33% Libs 28% NDP 18% Grn 11% Bloc 10%
Ang/Reid: Con 38% Libs 28% NDP 19% Bloc 9%, Grn 6%
Here is a round up of a few historians’ comments on the election:
Robert Bothwell, University of Toronto
“The Conservative ads continue to be really negative on Dion and they have more or less made his mannerisms and his speech and his appearance the election issue,” said Robert Bothwell, director of the international relations program at the University of Toronto.
[…]
“Coming into an election with a promise to enact something called a tax, no matter if it’s one cent on bubble gum is not a sensible tactic,” Bothwell said.
Stephen Clarkson, a political economy scientist at the University of Toronto, said Canadians may fear a Conservative majority led by Harper.
“He comes from the neoconservative school of thinking represented in the Bush administration,” Clarkson said.
Bothwell said he is an ideologue.
“He’s backtracked to keep himself in power until the right moment has arrived,” Bothwell said. “I don’t see any evidence of moderation. I do see evidence of political calculation.” [Associated Press]
Norman Hillmer, Carleton University
Norman Hillmer, one of Canada’s foremost political historians, also recites “Hillmer’s law of Canadian politics: Once you are in power for a year, you’re in power for a long time. We have a very stable political culture (and) sitting leaders have a huge advantage.”
[…]
Stéphane Dion, whose entire political career has been defined by low expectations, almost certainly benefited from his surprisingly competent performance against Harper in the televised debates.
“Momentum has a lot to do with expectations,” Hillmer says.
“The media set Harper up as a great strategist. He was ‘the man’ and Dion was just this pathetic little figure. But Dion turned out to be a better campaigner than many expected. He grew stronger as the campaign progressed. He performed well in the debates. It gave him, if not a momentum shift, at least the power to stop the bleeding.” [Winnipeg Free Press]
Political historian Norman Hillmer of Ottawa said the wave of economic anxiety that swept Canada after the U.S. meltdown challenged Harper’s strategy of running on a platform of “more of the same” and forced the prime minister’s team to retool the message. He also threw $25 billion into the pot as late as Friday, money designed to make it easier for Canadian individuals and business to borrow money.
Duncan McDowell, Carleton University
Duncan McDowell, a history professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, said that as long as the Bloc is alive and kicking, it’s almost impossible to imagine a majority federal government being formed.
“You subtract 45 to 50 seats out of 308 and it takes a Nobel laureate in mathematics to try to find a majority in that,” McDowall said in an interview. “That is the new norm.” [The Windsor Star, editors note: there is no Nobel prize for mathematics.]
David Mitchell, Queen’s University
“I really, honestly believe that having the long weekend - the Thanksgiving family oriented holiday across the country before the vote - may be the most decisive part of the campaign,” said David Mitchell, a political historian who is a vice-principal at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont. [The Windsor Star]
Michael Bliss, University of Toronto, Retired.
Historian Michael Bliss says there has been no other time in Canadian history that political leaders have seen such a serious economic crisis break in the midst of a federal election campaign, but he believes Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s “less activist approach” is the winning leadership message in these economically uncertain times.
There are economic precedents that had clear political consequences and carry lessons for today’s leaders, said Prof. Bliss author of Right Honourable Men: The Descent of Canadian Politics from Macdonald to Mulroney.
The closest comparison may be the Great Depression election of 1930, Prof. Bliss said in an interview with The Hill Times. The 1930 election was similar to today, when the seriousness of an economic downturn, sparked in 1929, remained disputed. Sitting prime minister William Lyon Mackenzie King went into the campaign denying that the country was headed into difficult economic times, but the strategy didn’t pay off. The Conservative candidate, R.B. Bennett, campaigned on taking a more activist government approach, to tackle economic troubles and fix unemployment. As a result, he won a majority government from Mackenzie King. [The Hill, cached]
Jack Granatstein, York University, Emeritus
But as Canadian historian Jack Granatstein pointed out, Mackenzie King’s loss in 1930 meant his victory in 1935, because Mr. Bennett had to govern over the most difficult period of the Great Depression.
“By losing in 1930 he was lucky because it meant he missed the worst of the Depression. When he came back in 1935, things weren’t all that much better, but he got a huge majority just because he wasn’t Bennett,” Mr. Granatstein said. “If we’re in for a long recession, and Harper gets elected this time, the odds are pretty good that he won’t the next time.”
Just how well the next prime minister fares politically during an economic slowdown will depend largely on their leadership, and they may have something to learn from U.S. president Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who governed during the Depression. Mr. Granatstein said Mr. Roosevelt was the most successful leader during poor economic times, although it was largely his charisma, inspiration and promises that succeeded. He also utilized the radio-what was then a new form of media. [The Hill, cached]